Chapter 59: 100%
"Oh?" The Human Pig was a bit puzzled. "I don't understand what you mean."
Old Lyu was also confused: "Kid, what are you saying? Does this game really have a 'sure-win method'?"
"I wouldn't dare call it a 'sure-win method,'" Qi Xia shook his head. "But 'pig-type games' are definitely not 'luck-type' games—they're thoroughly 'probability-based.'"
"What do you mean?" Old Lyu was scratching his head. "No matter how you distribute them, there are fifty black stones and fifty white stones. That means your chance of drawing any piece is one in two."
"Is that so?" Qi Xia shook his head noncommittally. "It's precisely because of that point that this game appears to lean toward 'luck-type.'"
"To tell you the truth, kid," Old Lyu leaned close to Qi Xia and whispered, "The first time, I separated the black and white stones into two bowls, so as long as I could pick the bowl with the black stones, I'd win. Unfortunately, I lost. The second time, I evenly distributed the black and white stones between both bowls, but I still didn't draw a black stone. My luck is just too terrible."
Old Lyu rubbed his chin and added, "If you think about it carefully, if you break the ratio and have each bowl contain varying amounts of black and white stones, that would actually make it even harder for me to draw a black stone. So no matter what, there's no sure-win method."
Qi Xia nodded. "This game can't be 'sure-win.' I can only try to increase my chances of winning as much as possible."
"Hmm? You've got a plan?"
Qi Xia didn't answer. Instead, he said to the Human Pig, "I'm ready. Let's begin."
The Human Pig grinned foolishly, then extended his hand in a "please" gesture. "Start distributing."
Qi Xia looked at the two identical bowls, then at the black and white stones that felt and looked the same. Silently, he grabbed a handful of stones and dropped them into one bowl.
Old Lyu watched Qi Xia quietly, wondering how he intended to arrange all one hundred stones.
Qi Xia kept grabbing stones and tossing them into the bowl, as if he wasn't even counting how many black or white there were.
"Hey... is this going to work?" Old Lyu asked hesitantly. "Don't you need to count how many you've put in?"
Qi Xia didn't speak; he just kept tossing stones into one bowl.
Old Lyu and Lin Qin exchanged glances, neither knowing what Qi Xia was up to.
It wasn't until Qi Xia had thrown all the stones into the same bowl that he stopped.
The Pig-headed man saw this and got a little angry. "Hey hey hey! That's against the rules! You have to distribute them into two bowls!"
"I know." Qi Xia nodded. "The distribution isn't over yet."
With that, he picked up a single black stone from the bowl and tossed it into the other bowl.
"My distribution is done." Qi Xia looked up, calmly gazing at the Human Pig.
"What?!"
Everyone present was stunned.
What kind of distribution method was this?
One bowl had a single black stone, and the other bowl had the remaining ninety-nine stones?
Old Lyu stared at the two bowls on the table, his pupils shifting. After a long moment, he spoke: "Brilliant... brilliant..."
He understood Qi Xia's tactic.
No matter how Old Lyu had previously distributed the stones, the "optimal distribution" between the two bowls had always been to split them equally—both bowls at one-half probability. That way, he could ensure a fifty percent chance of drawing a black stone.
But Qi Xia had broken that balance.
He made the probability of drawing a black stone from one bowl one hundred percent, while the other bowl's probability of drawing a black stone was as close to one-half as possible.
Since he had to randomly choose a bowl first, Qi Xia might very well directly pick the bowl with the single black stone. He wouldn't need to draw another stone; he'd win immediately.
Even if he was unlucky and chose the other bowl, his chance of drawing a black stone from that bowl was still nearly one-half—specifically, forty-nine percent.
He had essentially added a hidden "insurance policy" to his own victory.
When the Human Pig saw this, his expression behind the mask clearly turned colder.
"Are you trying to play clever tricks on me?" The Human Pig's tone changed; it no longer sounded childish, but carried a hint of cunning.
"Clever tricks?" Qi Xia found it somewhat amusing and raised an eyebrow. "Everything I've done follows the rules. How is it a clever trick?"
The Human Pig pulled an eye mask from his pocket and slowly handed it to Qi Xia. "I've known a lot of smart people. Most of them have very bad luck."
Qi Xia nodded and took the eye mask. "I can't argue with that. After all, smart people rarely rely on luck to get things done."
"But in the end, we're gambling." The Human Pig's voice dropped. "The most important thing in gambling is 'Mighty Fortune.' You're clever, but how's your luck?"
"I don't know," Qi Xia replied. "But we're about to find out."
Qi Xia slowly put on the eye mask, placing both hands on the table and not moving.
The Human Pig took the two bowls and began shaking them to mix the stones.
This rule was originally meant to deal with certain cheaters who would use white stones as a base and pile all the black stones on top to make them easier to draw.
But for Qi Xia's tactic, this rule was completely ineffective.
The Human Pig knew that no matter how he mixed the stones, this man would unhesitatingly choose one.
After all, he had already done everything he needed to do. Now, he would leave it all to his "fortune."
With that thought, the Pig casually shook the bowls, then swapped their positions, placing them left and right again.
"Hey, which bowl do you choose?" the Human Pig asked. "Your left hand... or your right hand?"
"I..." Qi Xia lowered his head and was silent for a moment. "Left. I choose the left."
Lin Qin and Old Lyu both stiffened, a sense of dread rising in their hearts.
Because the bowl on Qi Xia's left was the one containing ninety-nine stones!
A glimmer of light flashed in the Human Pig's eyes. "Excellent. Now please choose a stone from it."
He pushed the bowl in front of Qi Xia with a hint of mockery, as if waiting to laugh at him.
Qi Xia's lips curled slightly upward. "You wanted to test my luck, right? Using this bowl is just perfect."
"Wh—" The Human Pig was taken aback. "You, you know this bowl is the 'wrong' one?!"
"Pretty much." Qi Xia slowly reached his hand into the bowl. "Choosing 'left or right' is just like 'rock-paper-scissors.' The probability seems even, but human thinking always introduces a bias."
"What do you mean?" Old Lyu asked, confused from the side.
"Just like most people throw scissors first in rock-paper-scissors, the probability isn't actually balanced," Qi Xia explained. "'Paper' forces your palm to open wide, which makes you lose a sense of security, while 'rock' clenches your fist and subconsciously feels oppressive. So 'scissors' becomes the most neutral choice. The same goes for choosing left or right. People subconsciously think 'left is safer,' because most of the world is right-handed. They use their right hand more often, and their right hand is far more likely to get injured. So when choosing a safe direction, they tend to pick 'left.'"
"You... really are no ordinary man," said the Human Pig.
"No need to flatter me, because you understand these principles too." Qi Xia said. "You placed the ninety-nine stones on my left side. That wasn't an accident, was it?"