Chapter 59: 100%
"Oh?" The man-pig was puzzled. "I don't understand what you mean."
Old Lü was also confused. "Kid, what are you talking about? Does this game have a 'sure-win method'?"
"I wouldn't dare call it a sure-win method," Qi Xia shook his head. "But 'pig-type games' are definitely not 'luck-type' games. They are pure 'probability theory.'"
"What do you mean?" Old Lü was baffled. "No matter how you distribute them, there are fifty black and fifty white stones. That means your chance of drawing any given stone is always one in two."
"Is that so?" Qi Xia shook his head noncommittally. "It's precisely because of that that this game appears to lean toward 'luck-type.'"
"Let me tell you straight, kid." Old Lü leaned close to Qi Xia and whispered, "The first time, I separated the black and white stones into different bowls. That way, as long as I picked the bowl with the black stones, I'd win. Unfortunately, I lost. The second time, I evenly distributed the black and white stones between the two bowls, and I still didn't draw a black stone. My luck was just terrible."
Old Lü stroked his chin and continued, "If you think about it carefully, if you break the ratio and put different amounts of black and white stones in each bowl, it actually makes it harder for me to draw a black stone. So no matter how you look at it, there's no sure-win method."
Qi Xia nodded. "This game can never be 'sure-win.' I can only try to increase my chances as much as possible."
"Huh? You have a way?"
Qi Xia didn't answer. Instead, he turned to the man-pig and said, "I'm ready. Let's begin."
The man-pig grinned foolishly and extended his hand in a gesture of invitation. "Begin your distribution."
Qi Xia looked at the two identical bowls, then at the black and white stones, all the same in texture and feel. Silently, he grabbed a handful of stones and dropped them into one bowl.
Old Lü watched quietly, unsure of what Qi Xia planned to do with the hundred stones.
Qi Xia kept grabbing stones and tossing them into the bowl, as if he wasn't even counting the numbers of black and white.
"Hey... will this work?" Old Lü asked hesitantly. "Don't you need to count how many you've put in?"
Qi Xia didn't speak. He just kept dropping stones into the same bowl.
Old Lü and Lin Qin exchanged a glance, neither understanding what Qi Xia was doing.
It wasn't until Qi Xia had dumped all the stones into one bowl that he stopped.
Seeing this, the pig-headed man got angry. "Hey hey hey! That's against the rules! You have to distribute them into both bowls!"
"I know." Qi Xia nodded. "The distribution isn't over yet."
With that, he picked up a single black stone from the bowl and dropped it into the other bowl.
"My distribution is done." Qi Xia looked up calmly at the man-pig.
"What?!"
Everyone present was stunned.
What kind of distribution was that?
One bowl contained a single black stone, and the other bowl contained the remaining ninety-nine stones?
Old Lü stared at the two bowls on the table, his pupils shifting. After a long silence, he finally spoke. "Brilliant... brilliant..."
He understood Qi Xia's tactic.
No matter how Old Lü had distributed them before, the "optimal distribution" for the stones in both bowls was always to make them both exactly one-half black. That way, he could guarantee a fifty percent chance of drawing a black stone.
But Qi Xia had broken that balance.
He made the probability of drawing a black stone from one bowl one hundred percent, while the probability from the other bowl was as close to one-half as possible.
Since the player first randomly chooses a bowl, Qi Xia might directly pick the bowl containing the single black stone. If so, he wouldn't need to draw a stone at all—he'd win instantly.
Even if his luck was bad and he chose the other bowl, his chance of drawing a black stone would still be nearly one-half—specifically, about forty-nine percent.
He had essentially added a hidden "insurance policy" to his victory.
Seeing this, the expression behind the man-pig's mask visibly turned colder.
"Are you trying to be clever with me?" The man-pig's tone changed—it no longer sounded childish, but instead carried a hint of cunning.
"Clever?" Qi Xia found it amusing. He raised an eyebrow and said, "Everything I did follows the rules. How is that being clever?"
The man-pig pulled a blindfold from his pocket and slowly handed it to Qi Xia. "I've known a lot of smart people. Most of them have terrible luck."
Qi Xia nodded and took the blindfold. "I can't argue with that. After all, smart people rarely rely on luck when they do things."
"But in the end, we're gambling." The man-pig's voice turned low. "The most important thing in gambling is 'strong luck.' You're smart, but what about your luck?"
"I don't know," Qi Xia replied. "But we'll find out soon enough."
Qi Xia slowly put on the blindfold and placed both hands on the table, motionless.
The man-pig picked up the two bowls and began shaking them to mix the stones.
This rule was originally meant to counter certain opportunists who would place white stones at the bottom and pile all the black stones on top, making them easier to draw.
But for Qi Xia's tactic, this rule was completely useless.
The man-pig knew that no matter how he shook the stones, this man would unhesitatingly choose one.
After all, he had already done everything he needed to do. Now, he was going to leave it all to his "luck."
With that in mind, the man-pig gave the bowls a casual shake, then swapped their positions, placing one on the left and one on the right.
"Hey, which bowl do you want to pick?" the man-pig asked. "The one on your left... or the one on your right?"
"I..." Qi Xia bowed his head in silence for a moment, then said, "Left. I'll pick the left one."
Lin Qin and Old Lü both gasped inwardly, a sense of dread washing over them.
Because the bowl on Qi Xia's left was the one containing ninety-nine stones!
The man-pig's eyes suddenly gleamed with a hint of mockery. "Very well. Now, please select a stone from it."
He pushed the bowl in front of Qi Xia with a sneer, as if waiting to see him make a fool of himself.
The corner of Qi Xia's mouth lifted slightly. "Didn't you want to test my luck? Using this bowl is perfect for that."
"Wh—what?!" The man-pig was taken aback. "You... you know that bowl is the 'wrong' one?!"
"Something like that." Qi Xia slowly reached his hand into the bowl. "Choosing 'left or right' is just like 'rock-paper-scissors.' It seems like a balanced probability, but human psychology always creates a bias."
"What do you mean?" Old Lü asked, confused.
"Just like how most people throw 'scissors' first in rock-paper-scissors—the probabilities aren't actually balanced," Qi Xia explained. " 'Paper' forces your palm to open wide, giving you a sense of insecurity, while 'rock' clenches your fist, subconsciously making you feel oppressed. So 'scissors' becomes the most neutral choice. The same goes for choosing left or right. Subconsciously, people think 'left is safer.' After all, most people in the world are right-handed; they use their right hands frequently, and their right hands are far more likely to get injured. So when choosing a safe direction, 'left' comes naturally."
"You're... certainly not an ordinary person," the man-pig said.
"No need to flatter me. You understand these principles too." Qi Xia said. "You placed the ninety-nine stones on my left side. That wasn't accidental, was it?"